Accuracy of clinical predictions of prognosis at the end-of-life: evidence from routinely collected data in urgent care records.

BACKGROUND: The accuracy of prognostication has important implications for patients, families, and health services since it may be linked to clinical decision-making, patient experience and outcomes and resource allocation. Study aim is to evaluate the accuracy of temporal predictions of survival in patients with cancer, dementia, heart, or respiratory disease. METHODS: Accuracy of clinical prediction was evaluated using retrospective, observational cohort study of 98,187 individuals with a Coordinate My Care record, the Electronic Palliative Care Coordination System serving London, 2010-2020. The survival times of patients were summarised using median and interquartile ranges. Kaplan Meier survival curves were created to describe and compare survival across prognostic categories and disease trajectories. The extent of agreement between estimated and actual prognosis was quantified using linear weighted Kappa statistic. RESULTS: Overall, 3% were predicted to live "days"; 13% "weeks"; 28% "months"; and 56% "year/years". The agreement between estimated and actual prognosis using linear weighted Kappa statistic was highest for patients with dementia/frailty (0.75) and cancer (0.73). Clinicians' estimates were able to discriminate (log-rank p < 0.001) between groups of patients with differing survival prospects. Across all disease groups, the accuracy of survival estimates was high for patients who were likely to live for fewer than 14 days (74% accuracy) or for more than one year (83% accuracy), but less accurate at predicting survival of "weeks" or "months" (32% accuracy). CONCLUSION: Clinicians are good at identifying individuals who will die imminently and those who will live for much longer. The accuracy of prognostication for these time frames differs across major disease categories, but remains acceptable even in non-cancer patients, including patients with dementia. Advance Care Planning and timely access to palliative care based on individual patient needs may be beneficial for those where there is significant prognostic uncertainty; those who are neither imminently dying nor expected to live for "years".

The cost utility of bisphosphonate treatment in established osteoporosis.

BACKGROUND: Hip fracture is an important and costly problem. Bisphosphonate therapy prevents hip and other fractures among women with established osteoporosis, but there are few published economic evaluations of this treatment. AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of risedronate, a recently launched bisphosphonate for the prevention of fractures among women with established osteoporosis. METHODS: A state transition Markov model of established post-menopausal osteoporosis based upon randomized clinical trial data was developed. Uncertainty underlying model parameters and outcomes was dealt with using traditional sensitivity analysis and stochastic sensitivity analysis to produce quasi-95%CIs. We focussed on patients aged approximately 75 years, since this population most closely matches the randomized controlled trial, and is typical of osteoporosis patients in the UK. RESULTS: The baseline model of treating a cohort of 1000 75-year-old women for 3 years with risedronate and then modelling the costs and benefits over their expected lifetimes, produced net savings of pound sterling 786 000 for the treatment group per 1000 treated women, (95%CI pound sterling 1.55m savings to pound sterling 47000 extra costs). Restricting the horizon of the analysis to only three years led to a small net cost of pound sterling 138 000 per 1000 treated women (95%CI pound sterling 196 000 savings to pound sterling 477 000 extra costs) with a net increment in Quality Adjusted Life years (QALYs) of 16 per 1000 treated women. This resulted in a cost per QALY of pound sterling 8625 per treated woman. CONCLUSIONS: In this example, the use of risedronate therapy in 75-year-old women at high risk of hip fracture leads to an improvement in quality of life with possible cost savings. Restricting the analysis to a time horizon of only three years leads to a QALY gain at a modest net cost.

The 1999 BDA Heathrow Timings inquiry.

In the summer of 1999 the BDA conducted a Timings Inquiry in order to provide information on treatment timings within the General Dental Services (GDS) and to develop a model of an hourly rate for general practice. A panel of dentists measured the absolute time taken to carry out 21 key treatments. The relative times of related treatments were then estimated. The panel also came to consensus about the variables to construct the hourly rate model. The absolute timings exercise was applied to the hourly rate model in order to draw some conclusions about the average earnings of a full-time dentist committed to the NHS. This information formed a central part of the BDA's 1999 evidence to the Doctors and Dentists Review Body.